M|Welsh Design

I was reading an article on recession and noted that Says Law was mentioned a few times, obscurely, but mentioned.

“…A central element of Say’s Law is that recession does not occur because of failure in demand or lack of money. The more goods (for which there is demand) that are produced, the more those goods (supply) can constitute a demand for other goods. For this reason, prosperity should be increased by stimulating production, not consumption. In Say’s view, creation of more money simply results in inflation; more money demanding the same quantity of goods does not represent an increase in real demand….”

The nature of our current econonmy… the making of or production of goods and services, is most likely the answer to the problem… not running a business on credit also mandatory… Money in vs Money out.

A stimulus program may not make much sense based on current business and credit conditions… stimulation of production may be the long term way out… lending for increasing production rather than borrowing for consumption sake seems clearer the answer.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_economics

Keynes argued that the solution to depression was to stimulate the economy (”inducement to invest”) through some combination of two approaches :

• a reduction in interest rates.
• Government investment in infrastructure – the injection of income results in more spending in the general economy, which in turn stimulates more production and investment involving still more income and spending and so forth. The initial stimulation starts a cascade of events, whose total increase in economic activity is a multiple of the original investment.

The bridge collapse in August… We have plenty of these type projects to do apparently.

There are many who thought the idea was a novelty but that I wouldn’t do it for more than a few weeks.

Well… its be twelve weeks so far, and I am still riding…

1000 mi on the bike means;

• Less miles on the car
• longer brake life
• longer tire life
• less Co2 -like a metric ton less.
• more stamina for running
• less concern about every calorie
• 1500 cals burned per trip
• workout variety… off days go to the gym
• focus time. (hour on the bike each way)
• Read three books on my ipod (the shadow factory, the greatest story ever sold, the power of now)

I think it has been a success and I will continue to do it as long as possible… I like riding and find the ride time very useful and all the benefits out-weigh any cost.

This is the bike: eZee Bike Torq II I paid less than what it was listed for, $1,725.00 plus shipping.

• 750 miles, lost some weight and have enjoyed the ride to work. Not so much the ride home.
• 15 mi/gal
• $4 per gal
• $200.00 savings roughly.
• .6 metric tons of CO2 reduction. << not much but whatever.
• Extended brake and tire life ( $300-400 for brake and tire job)

73k on the car.

Electric hybrid bike or pedelec..

17 mi each way avg 20 mph on the trails

travel time 1 hour.

Ride 3 days per week avg.

work at home 2 days

avg fill up at wawa $72 I used to fill up every week so in reality $72 x 4 = 576 over 2 mos reduced to $376 over the same period.

Health effects are clear, cardio, stamina and overall fitness is getting better. Initial weight at start. 221 lbs

current weight 218 and dropping.

eating habits have modified to more small meals in a day. eating breakfast has been key

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credit_default_swap

Holy crap this is a key contributing factor….

You default on a mortgage and the under, underlying insurance company is screwed….

Have too many of them and the investment bank goes out of business…

Risky borrowers with the too good to be true mortgage rates that adjust (mental morons) get a mortgage… then default… mortgage backed securities to spread the risk screwed the taxpayer esp since i gotta keep paying my mortgage and taxes…

Glass-Steagall Act…Phil Gramm… Jimmy Carter and Why I won’t vote republican & maybe not democrat…

The Glass-Steagall Act of 1933 established the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) in the United States and included banking reforms, some of which were designed to control speculation.^{[citation needed]} Some provisions such as Regulation Q that allowed the Federal Reserve to regulate interest rates in savings accounts were repealed by the Depository Institutions Deregulation and Monetary Control Act of 1980. Provisions that prohibit a bank holding company from owning other financial companies were repealed on November 12, 1999 by a bipartisan, conference committee version of the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act signed by President Bill Clinton (excerpted from wiki page)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glass-Steagall_Act

Material list:

• 4 Studs
• 2 Interior Luan Doors 36 x 80
• 4 2 x 4  7/16  Screw Hooks
• 1 inch speed bore bit
• 4 Chains, I used the 360lb load per chain. (36 inch)
• 4 Joist hangers
• 10 Hex Lag Bolts 3/8 x 2.5″
• 4 Carabeners Load 740lb

http://gallery.me.com/mwelsh#100414 < part I gallery.

http://gallery.me.com/mwelsh#100421 < gallery of the project

Description to follow but the photos are captioned.

Rode bike to work today and got here in normal time

Roughly 17 mi 17mph got to the office in about an hour.

Riding the new electric bike. Pretty cool.

Maps for the Park

Heading to the state park outside of Hanover for the weekend. Should be a blast.

Kayaking and bike riding as well as camping with the girls and their cousins.

More later….

Pictures

Cordorus State Park

http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/06/18/business/oil.php

This will not have a huge impact yet, but it will soon as regualtion and awareness on capitol hill of the actual loophole.

CSPAN link: Energy Security Hearing CSPAN

• ICE Futures are adding 30 50% to Barrel and Pump Prices
• Futures Traders are driving to failure like a Tick engorging itself the price of oil
• Traders are screwing with the price and they don’t care about the oil bubble

Quote:

“U.S. regulators are feeling pressure from Senate lawmakers to rein in what they see as excessive speculation in commodities markets, which they believe is the culprit behind record prices for crude oil that have risen nearly 40 percent since January.”

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/engdahl/2008/0502.html

This is an excerpt from the article i found interesting.

All this is well and official. But how today’s oil prices are really determined is done by a process so opaque only a handful of major oil trading banks such as Goldman Sachs or Morgan Stanley have any idea who is buying and who selling oil futures or derivative contracts that set physical oil prices in this strange new world of “paper oil.”

With the development of unregulated international derivatives trading in oil futures over the past decade or more, the way has opened for the present speculative bubble in oil prices.

Since the advent of oil futures trading and the two major London and New York oil futures contracts, control of oil prices has left OPEC and gone to Wall Street. It is a classic case of the “tail that wags the dog.”

A June 2006 US Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations report on “The Role of Market Speculation in rising oil and gas prices,” noted, “…there is substantial evidence supporting the conclusion that the large amount of speculation in the current market has significantly increased prices.”

What the Senate committee staff documented in the report was a gaping loophole in US Government regulation of oil derivatives trading so huge a herd of elephants could walk through it. That seems precisely what they have been doing in ramping oil prices through the roof in recent months.

The Senate report was ignored in the media and in the Congress.